In a nutshell, that’s the problem for “Thor”: Much of box office analysis centers around rankings and comparisons, and then judging by expectations, rather than a more rational (and logical) reaction. Without “Top Gun” for comparison, an eventual haul of $350 million domestic would seem terrific for “Thor.” But both the industry and fans tend to assess winners and losers, with the former often basing future production decisions on the perception of results.
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That would be tantalizingly close to what “Spiderman: Far from Home” amassed ($805 million) when it was hailed as the savior of movie theaters. Already over $575 million, the Tom Cruise-led sequel now looks like it will end at somewhere between $700-750 million domestic. Still, that could be off-target, both up and down.Īny elevated expectations for the film come from, perhaps more than anything else, the unanticipated performance of “ Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount). That said, this weekend’s projection for Taika Waititi’s second Marvel Cinematic Universe entry “Thor: Love and Thunder” ( Disney) is $150 million (+/- $10 million). At the same time, with advance ticket buying (similar to early voting), the early trajectory sometimes can be locked in. But just like in election campaign polling, they can have last minute shifts, particularly when advance reaction leaks. Despite some recent box office surprises - from Universal’s “Minions: The Rise of Gru” opening to $107 million last weekend ($30 million above industry expectations) to the low turnout for Pixar’s “Lightyear” - tracking and industry source-projections usually are still reliable.
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